Neural Network

Step 1: Bull or Bear?

- Valuation: P/E, P/NAV, P/B, etc...
- Interest Rate, dividend yield.. fed model
- bond market peak and trough a while back..
- M2 shrinking (end of Bull); rising (end of Bear)
- number of IPO
- DMI and ADX
- A/D line, and A/D Index... $NYAD
- 200 MA line... (or 250 for HK)...
- major shareholders offload and buying... insiders action
- head&shoulder/Double Top, other chart patterns...
- people buying or selling Utilities companies
- market turnover peaked or troughed...
- Mark Hulbert's Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index
- Market Sentiment: VIX, AAII, etc
- Mutual Fund Cash Asset Ratio
- Dow Theory: DJIA confirms by DJTA.. p 24 of 9th ed of TAST says DJIA, SP500 and NASDAQ should all confirm one another...
- Dow Theory for the 21st century: pp 86-91... very very good...
- Positive Volume Index:

Fosback, in his book Stock Market Logic, claims that there is a 95% probability of a bull trend when the negative volume index is above its 1 year moving average, and drops to 50% when the NVI is below it. On the other hand, he argues there is a 67% chance of a bear trend continuing when the PVI drops below its 1 year moving average, and only 21% when it jumps back above it. See also Fosback Index...courtesy of Ned Davis Research.

Step 2: which phase?

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