Commentary and Strategies for the Hong Kong Stock Market

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Day Trading Rules

Based on my 2 months experience of day-trading HSI, I detect the following patterns of HSI:

1. If HSI open less than 100 points lower or higher (by 10:15am), it will usually move in the same direction for more than 2 to 400 points by 10:45 to 11:00am. There is a 90% chance that this is correct especially if Dow Jones moved in the same direction the night before. I use Slow Stochastic (14,3) and sometimes Bollinger bands as buy/sell signal. I might dip into this pool of fund for my strategy (3) and (4) below.

2. If HSI open less than 100 points lower or higher (by 10:15am), and then indeed move in the same direction for more than 400 points by 10:45 to 11:00am, then it will reverse in one hour... There is a 80% chance that this is correct. I also use Slow Stochastic (and sometimes bollinger) as buy/sell signal.

3. If HSI gradually moves in the same direction for more than 400 points from 10:00am to 10:45 to 11:15am, then it will reverse in one hour... There is a 90% chance that this is correct. I also use Slow Stochastic (and sometimes bollinger) as buy/sell signal.

4. If HSI open more than 400 points lower or higher (at 10:00am), it will move in the same direction throughout the morning (90% chance), and it will usually move in the same direction for the whole day (80% chance). Technical indicator doesn't help much. There are too much buy/sell signals each day.

5. The above will happen at least once a week.

6. If HSI is higher or lower by 200 points by 10:45am, I do not know what it will do.














7. I have never made any money buying/selling in the afternoon.... sad... Afternoon is totalling unpredictable...

8. I have yet to try pattern trading, eg double tops/bottoms, cup with handle, breakout. It might be worth trying....

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